Tech Tourist 2.0

Japanese Radiation Landfall in California

One of my friends shared concerns I am sure are felt by many in California, especially those with children (minor edits):

We have been watching the news and are concerned as it is so hard to get an accurate picture.  I saw news last night saying the winds from Japan were going to go west and then north circling to Russia - maybe that is a lower level than jetstream.  Everyone had been saying there was no danger to CA but now they are saying some radiation will reach us and, given the radition exposure is cummulative, and radiation keeps being emitted, and no signs they will be able to contain all of it, to me the question is could the very low added radiation now cummulate over say next week or two to become significant.

Meanwhile some official government simulations published in the New York Times show that more extensive radiation will cover California than Japan. More details appear on Quora.

I created a quick map composite of the US government simulation with a more detailed map of California from Google Earth so that those in San Francisco and the Bay Area can see how a simulated radioactive plume from Japan is found to cover the area south of San Francisco. I wouldn't trust the simulation and the map overlay to provide much more accuracy than +/- 100 miles, but it is still a better illustration than I have seen elsewhere. See below.

Canadian Tourist Visas for Vietnamese

I am helping someone from Vietnam apply for a visa to visit Canada. A lot of the information a person needs to know about this process is NOT published on the web. The Canadian government does publish detailed directions for applying for a "Temporary Resident Visa Made Outside of Canada" (a tourist visa by any other name). However, many of the real requirements are not published online anywhere. When you go to the Vietnam company Canada has designated for visa application processing, IOM, in Ho Chi Minh City or Hanoi, you find out that there are a lot of extra requirements and new forms to fill out. To save everyone else the hassle of finding this out the hard way, I am going to publish, below, the scanned and OCRed directions and forms presented to me, and apparently available nowhere else.

Directions

Government of Canada Gouvernement du Canada Consulate General of Canada Consulat general du Canada

THE INFORMATION ON THIS FORM AND ALL APPLICATION FORMS ARE FREE OF CHARGE

TEMPORARY RESIDENT-VISAS

Visa issuance is based on compliance with Canada's Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (A) and Regulations (R). Applicants for Canadian temporary resident visas must satisfy a visa officer that they meet the requirements for visa issuance (R179), which includes that:

o       they will leave Canada at the end ofthe period authorized for their stay (R183);                   o       they are in good health (a medical examination may be required) (A38 , R30);                   o       they are admissible, do not have a criminal record and are not a security risk (A34-37, A40­42);                   o       they have sufficient funds to cover travel costs and support themselves in Canada (A39);                   o       they will not work or study in Canada unless authorized to do so (R183).

 

HOW TO APPLY

An application for a Canadian Temporary Resident Visa consists of 1) REQUIRED DOCUMENTS, 2) REQUIRED NON-REFUNDABLE PROCESSING FEES, and 3) SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS. Please refer to the checklists below.

Persons in Vietnam may submit an application in person or by mail to the Canadian Visa Application Centres (CANVAC) operated by IOM (http://www.iom.int.vn/canada):

Canadian Visa Application Center -IOM in Ho Chi Minh City PDD Building, 8th Floor Tel : +84(8)3829-6377 or 3829-6376

162 Pasteur, District 1 Email: hochiminh@iom.int Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Canadian Visa Application Center -IOM in Hanoi DMC Tower, 7th Floor Tel.: +84(4)3736-6258 535 Kim Ma Street, Ba Dinh District Email: hanoi@iom.int Hanoi , Vietnam

Please note that in Vietnam the CANVAC/IOM offices are responsible only for receivmg applications and returning documentation to the applicant. Applications are approved or refused only by visa officers at the Consulate General of Canada in Ho Chi Minh City (http://geo.international.gc.ca/asia/vietnam).

Consulate General of Canada -Immigration Section -Suite 908. 235 Dong Khoi, D.1, HCMC, Vietnam -Fax: +84(8)3827-9937

IMPORTANT REMINDERS

o Unsigned or incomplete applications will not be approved. o Only application forms completed in English or French will be accepted for processing, and all documents must be translated to English or French and attached to the original or to a notarized copy. o Completion of forms and payment of the processing fee does not guarantee approval of an application . o The Consulate General of Canada reserves the right to ask for a personal interview or for any document relevant to an application. o The Government of Canada may choose to verify any document submitted by contacting its author or its issuing authority. o If you intend to visit Canada for six months or longer a visa officer may direct you to undergo a medical examination. The results ofthe initial medical examination normally take four to six weeks to arrive at the Consulate General. o Be truthful. Any direct or indirect misrepresentation that could induce an error in the administration of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act may result in refusal of an application. This includes not declaring previous visa applications and not declaring family members.

 

AFTER YOU APPLY

Applicants who submit their applications through CANVACIIOM may be able to schedule their own interviews (if required by a visa officer) and/or receive case status updates by mobile phone text message (SMS). The Consulate General of Canada does not offer these services except subject to their availability by CANVAC/IOM.

All case status requests should be made in writing. Case-specific enquiries for status may be made using the contact information available at the following web site: http://www.cic.gc.calenglish/information/offices/missions/ho-chi-minh.asp. The Consulate General of Canada does not receive status enquiries by phone.

All visitors are encouraged to apply at least four to six weeks prior to their intended departure date and are encouraged NOT to purchase non-refundable tickets before receiving a visa. The Consulate General of Canada makes best efforts to process applications promptly but does not guarantee that all applications will be decided within these normal processing times.

STAND ARD VISA APPLICATION PROCESSING TIMES

October through February: 10 working days March through September: 20 working days

 

Canada

200611 -2-TRV-Kil-EN

-

DOCUMENT CHECKLISTS FOR TEMPORARY RESIDENT VISA APPLICANTS

An application consists of:

1) REQUIRED DOCUMENTS 2) REQUIRED NON-REFUNDABLE PROCESSING FEES 3) SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS

1) REQUIRED DOCUMENTS (all forms must be fully completed and signed)

o          "Application for a Temporary Resident Visa" IMM 5257; applicants must list all family members on the form (including spouse or common-law partner and all children under 22) even if they will not accompany the applicant o          "Additional Family Information" IMM5640 forms for each principal applicant and any accompanying person over 18 years of age D "Visitor Questionnaire for Family Visit / Business Visit" for the principal applicant

 

 

2) REQUIRED NON-REFUNDABLE PROCESSING FEES

Single entry                               : 75 CAD or 75 USD Multiple entry                          : 150 CAD or 150 USD Maximum fee per family           :400 CAD or 400 USD  +Add 15 USD IOM service fee.

NOTE: fees are subject to change without notice and are not refundable even if the application is refused or withdrawn

Two methods of payment:

o          Cash: US dollars (USD) ONLY at the Canadian Visa Application Centres - IOM OR o          Bank draft: in Canadian dollars (CAD) ONLY payable to "The Receiver General for Canada"

o          "Use of a Representative" IMM 5476 form if someone has assisted you in the preparation of the application o          "Statutory Declaration of Common-law Union" (IMM 5409) (if applicable) o          Contact number where the principal applicant can be reached during working hours o          Valid passport for each applicant (there must be one completely blank visa page available in each passport and the passport must be valid for the duration of the intended stay in Canada) o          Two (2) identical passport-sized photos of each applicant taken within the last six months; the photos must : comply with · specifications found on the following web site (http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/appIications/photospecs.asp)

 

3) SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS

All applicants: official civil status documents (household registration book, birth certificate, marriage/divorce certificate)

All applicants: information concerning the purpose of travel -such as a letter of invitation that includes the inviter's full name, address, email address, contact telephone and facsimile numbers and an explanation of their relationship to the applicant

Consulate General of Canada -Immigration Section -Suite 908, 235 Dong Khoi, 0 ,1, HCMC, Vietnam -Fax: +84(8)3827-9937

All applicants: information about the applicant's financial resources:

 

An applicant who will be accompanied by their child under 16 years of age: notarized letter of consent from the other parent permitting the child to travel

An applicant under18 years of age who will be travelling without his or her parent/guardian: notarized custody arrangement signed by the child's parent/guardian AND by the person who will have custody of the child during the stay in Canada: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/pdf/pub/custodian-parent.pdf

In addition, for family visits: information about the financial resources of the inviter and the inviter's spO\l;se in Canada:

o          a copy of the inviter's Canadian citizenship or immigration status document (PR card, etc.)

o          a letter from the inviter in Canada indicating financi al responsibility for the visit, their relationship to theapplicantandthenumber ofpersonslivinginthe inviter'shousehold

o          original or notarized personal income tax Notice of Assessment (T451/ Income Tax Return Information-Regular or RC143) for the past two (2) years for the inviter and his or her spouse; if the spouse does not work or is unable to submit these documents, attach a letter of explanation                   o          recent bank statement ofthe inviter and his or her spouse                   o          recent employment confirmation for the inviter and his or her spouse                   o          if visiting a sick relative, include a recent letter from the hospital or doctor detailing the health situation and prognosis of the sick relative in Canada

 

In addition, for business visitors:

o          a letter of confirmation for the trip from the applicant's employer / company                   o          a letter of invitation from an inviter in Canada that indicates the purpose of the trip and states who will assume financial responsibility

 

In addition, for returning students:

o          the most recent original transcript from the school in Canada                   o          a Study Permit valid for at least six months from the intended date of return to school                   o          a letter from the school in Canada confirming registration for the upcoming course

 

For diplomatic or official passports: a diplomatic note must be attached

APPLICATlONS MAYBE REFUSED IF THEY ARE NOT SUBMITTED .ACCORDING TO THESE INSTRUCTIONS OR IF THEY DO NOT INCLUDE SUFFICIENT SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION TO SATISFY A VISA OFFICER THAT THE APPLICANT MEETS THE REQUIREMENTS FOR VISA ISSUANCE.

 

 

o employees shoui'dsubmit original confirmation of employment from their employer stating salary, length of employment, and leave entitlement, as well as: Social Insurance Book; Labour Book; labour contract; payslip; personal bank statement (if receiving salary by money transfer) o business owners should submit a copy of the business license and business income tax receipts for the past two (2) years o students still enrolled in school in Vietnam should submit a copy of their student card and most recenttranscriptaswellas evidence offinancialresources for theirparents

o all applicants may submit evidence of other assets and financial status (property / house / vehicle ownership; bank statement).

The Missing Application Form (Questionnaire)

TEMPORARY RESIDENT QUESTIONNAIRE

(1) Your Employment:
-Position: Current salary: 
-Employer: 
-How long have you been on the job? 
-Description ofyour work! responsibilities: 
-How long have you been granted leave? 
-With or without pay? Is the leave permission attached? Yes / No 

(2) Spouse's employment:
-Position: Current salary: 
-Employer: 

(3) Funds in Viet nam:
-Any savings? Yes/No 
-Timed deposit: Amount:
-Other savings and their sources:

(5) Funds in Canada:
-Sponsor's and spouse' s T4 and income tax return slips for the past two years:
-Sponsor's and spouse's bank account / bank statements, etc:
-Otherfundsandtheirsources:
-How many sponsor's children? Age:

(6) Sponsor(s) in Canada:
-Name(s): Date of Birth: 
-Status in Canada: 0 Citizen' o Permanent resident OTemporary resident O Worker O Student
-When was their last visit to Vietnam?
-Purpose and durat ion of their visit:

(7) Relative(s) in Canada:
Full name, Date of Birth, Relationship
(Please continue on a separate sheet if you have additional relatives)

(4) Properly and assets: 
-Do you own house(s)?  How many?  Own land?  How many pieces?   
-Automobile(s)?  How many?   
-Motorcycle(s)?  How many?  


(8) Purpose ofyour trip to Canada:
-Purpose ofyourvisittoCanada:
-Duration of stay: with whom:
-Who will pay for the plane ticket and other expenses?
-Have you ever been to Canada? Yes 0 No 0 How many times? 
-Copy of previous visa(s):

(9) What are the obligations/ reasons for your return to Vietnam?

 

 

 

Receive Your Snail Mail in Your Email

Dealing with physical mail from the U.S. Postal Service has been a constant challenge, both as a globe-trotting entrepeneur, and before that, as a bi-coastal consultant.  The best I could do was have mail sent to one location or another -- an empty apartment, or a friend's home, but in any case, a place that I might not visit for many months at a time. Now that I spend many months in Asia, forwarding my mail by courier would be a very costly option that would still leave my mail fairly stale. And since perhaps ninety percent of my mail is junk, sending it halfway around the world in order to be discarded is both annoying and environmentally unsound.

Earth Class Mail is my solution. Using them, I now receive an email whenever I get postal mail, and that email shows me a scan of the envelope received and asks me if I would like to open and scan it, recyle it, shed it, or forward it. From their website, I can see and manage my U.S. Postal Service mail almost as if it were email. If an envelope contains a check, I can even ask them to deposit  it for me. From the other side of the world, I now have faster access to my mail than ever before. Earth Class Mail gives me an address to use on Market Street in downtown San Francisco (they have locations around the US) that can accept both my corporate mail and personal mail. The address is not classified as a Post Office Box (even though it essentially is) so I can receive anything at that address.

Getting Your Email Read

I find it very effective to take an email one has just written, and drag the conclusion and calls to action from the very bottom (where I naturally put it) and put them right up front. Any secondary calls to action should go after that. Explanations should follow that. And interesting background and polite observations should go below even that. Finally, I bold every word or phrase that is relevant so that the whole email makes approximate sense if you only were only to read the bold words.

This extra effort takes a bit of time. But if it is one of those things where there is money on the line or something like that, I find it is worth it to make sure the message gets across. In my view, if you want to get someone to read beyond the first couple sentences, let alone the whole email, you have to earn that by delivering value in the first two sentences, or even the subject heading.

 

Moving from Vox to either Typepad or Wordpress

"Welcome to WordPress.com. This is your first post. Edit or delete it and start blogging!"

That was my introduction to wordpress.com after waiting for a few minutes for my years of blogging at http://lws.vox.com to get imported. For the most part, the import went well. Some font colours came over as unreadable and will need to be adjusted. The biggest loss is that none of my video has been copied over. I am not sure at this point what to do about that.

I also exported the blog this http://techtourist.typepad.com/blog/ and so far it looks like the better move. For one thing, it seamlessly exported all of the video I had on vox. The themes were weaker and fewer, but I found something I liked. However, the sense I get is that typepad is less likely to have advanced features, or cool widgets like iPad viewers. But I could be very wrong about most of that. My biggest remaining concern is how I would get off of typepad if I needed to leave this service should it get shut down.

 

Getting a Good Taxi from Ho Chi Minh City Airport

When you arrive in Saigon (SGN) at the Tan Son Nhat International Airport, getting a good taxi to take you the 6 km into town may be a challenge. As is common for visitors to many cities, from New York to Bangalore, this first challenge is often the most difficult of the entire visit.

Almost all -- not just some -- of the taxis at the airport will be bad taxis. A bad taxi will charge you two or three times as much as the going rate. If you pay up, you will probably get where you want safely and without incident. But disputing a bad taxi experience can lead to dangerous conflict. A normal sized taxi using a meter will charge a total of VND 80,000 (USD 4)  to take a person from the airport to District 1 in Ho Chi Minh City. No tip will be expected, but given how lucky you are to get treated so fairly, I think giving the driver VND 100,000 (USD 5) and telling him or her to keep the change is more than fair. A bad taxi driver might charge you anything from VND 150,000 to VND 500,000 (USD 25) for the same trip.

Why are most taxis bad? First of all, some or all of the taxi drivers pay money to be let into the airport, and they expect to make it up by ripping off an unsuspecting visitor. Second, only one taxi from each company is let in at any given time, and there are only three or four good companies. And finally, the good ones get taken fast.

How do you know if you are in a bad taxi?

(1) They will ask for a fixed price to take you to your destination and will not turn on the meter. A reasonable fixed price to take you downtown (District 1) would be VND 100,000 (USD 5), but they will probably ask for VND 200,000. And even if they do agree to a reasonable price, they may claim it was per person, or that you have to pay for other fees when you arrive. You could just walk away in this situation, but that could lead to violent conflict. A friend of mine was beaten with a stick by a taxi driver in that situation, and such events are common and often worse (See local news).

(2) They will not turn on the meter. You must tell your taxi driver to turn on the meter. And you have to be focused and confirm that they do it. Bear in mind that the meter can take about 30 seconds to start to work. But if it is not turned on one must forcefully say "turn it on, or stop now and let me off." If they do not turn on the meter, you are in a worse situation than (1) above because they can, and probably will ask for as much money as they think they can extort from you. 

(3) They will ask for extra fees. There is a VND 5,000 (USD 0.25) fee for taxis leaving the airport. But a good taxi would not ask for this to be paid. A bad taxi driver may claim this was many times as much and ask for it.  I have also heard of people being asked for fees for luggage -- but there are none.

 (4) They will drive a fake or copycat branded taxi. These taxis will have names that vary from those of good taxis by just a single letter, and use similar colours and logos. Their whole existence is based on deceit. Also, these taxis, and even ones that are just not good brands, may have meters that are modified to go faster and charge more. You can turn your head for a few seconds and the taxi driver will push a button and the meter will jump by VND 100,000 ($5) in an instant.  How much they do this will be a judgment call on their part as to how much they think they can get away with.

The picture below shows a real MaiLinh Taxi logo (left) and a copycat Mr Taxi logo (right).

 

How do I find a good taxi?

(1) Just pick a good taxi company. These include Mai Linh, Vinataxi, and Vinasun.   There are other reputable companies, but don't make your first trip an experiment in discovering them.  Read the taxi labels very carefully and remember that close is not good enough: there are fake taxis out there. There are fake Mai Linh taxis that look very similar and have a similar name, but the signs are cheaper, there are fake Vinasun's (e.g. "Vinasum").  Note that the Vinataxi cars are yellow and usually pretty beat up and old, but they are among the least expensive and just as reliable as the more expensive ones in general.  Keep an eye out for signs that you are in a bad taxi (see above) because you might be in a fake or have an unusually bad driver.

At the airport, there will be a dark green shirted Mai Linh taxi representative, and you may also find a Vinasun taxi representative. Just tell that person that you want one of their taxis and they will call one. Be prepared to wait and turn down many opportunities to take another brand of taxi. You might be lucky and find a yellow Vinasun you can flag down.

A REAL Mai Linh Taxi (2010)

The Real MaiLinh Logo

A Real Vinataxi

VinasunTaxi

(2) Do not pick a fake taxi. Look carefully to make sure the taxi looks other ones of the same brand you have seen before. Check the spelling and the logo. The fake logos will always be the cheaper looking ones, although some companies like Vinasun have upgraded their look and they do have some older, and so now less legitimate looking taxis out there. Check the phone number. The fakes will often have numbers on them that are off by just one digit. Vinataxi is 38-111-111. Mai Linh will be 38-222-666 or 3-76-76-76. Vinasun will be 8-27-27-27. The taxi companies, Mai Linh in particular,  sometimes have a number of different phone numbers. As I mentioned, a bigger giveaway is not the number being wrong, but the number being almost right.

The picture below shows a fake MaiLinh taxi run by the "Mr Taxi Group", whose business model seems to be built entirely around tricking tourists or other taxi novices.

Compare the picture below of a fake taxi to the one earlier in this article showing a real MaiLinh taxi to see the similarity in branding and colours.

A **fake*** MaiLinh taxi.

What to do if things go wrong? If you are running on a rigged meter and the cost has jumped way too high, you are probably going to be better off stopping immediately and finding another taxi. If you are in a busy area with other taxi traffic, just tell the driver to stop and let you off. Pretend you have just seen a shop or a hotel or a restaurant or something and decided you want to get off right there and right now to visit it. Don't tell the driver you are on to his trick or you will just end up arguing and wasting money and possibly causing him to lose face and become agressive. If it is late at night and the streets are empty and the weather is bad (a perfect time for a taxi driver to speed up his meter), you may be better off just making a comment about the meter being bad (or "sow") and letting the driver know you are looking at the meter carefully. If the VND 80,000 trip turns out to be VND 500,000, you could just calmly and without seeming concerned about the money collect your luggage and just hand the driver VND 200,000. But if things escalate you are probably better off just paying up and learning your lesson for next time.

American Financial Diaspora

"...American citizens are increasingly voting with their feet. In Hong Kong, so many US passport holders fear the deluge of US taxes that will inevitably follow the spending binge that it can now apparently take as much as 11 months to secure an appointment at the US consulate to surrender US citizenship."  - Financial Times, July 2, 2010.

Perhaps more than most, Americans are not inclined to give up their residence and find another country to live in. Indeed, living in their country remains by far a net aspiration for the people of the world. But I have certainly noticed an increase in questions about leaving over the years. George W. Bush's tenure as President started a steady stream of questions about how easily, or not, it was for an American to become a Canadian citizen. At that time, the questions seemed driven by a desire for cost issues, such as an interest in free health care. But an important part was escaping the future tax and moral burden of the costly war in Iraq, and potentially elsewhere.  Now, with a potential for a permanent decline in global economic competitiveness becoming more apparent. And with the addition of massive government borrowing to bail out the financial industry, concerns that already existed have more support.

For U.S. Citizens, escaping the tax regime of the USA is not as easy as it is for citizens of other countries. To stop being liable for Canadian income tax of any sort, a Canadian citizen need only leave the country for several months and stay away for six months a year. That is the case for citizens of most countries. It is also the case for foreigners working in the US who are fortunate enough to not have Green Cards. But Americans are always taxable by the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) on their worldwide income even when they haven't lived in the country for decades. Only by giving up their US citizenship do they have any hope of escaping this eternal tax net.

Even then, escape has become harder over the years, and getting harder. Fairly recent new laws require people who give up their citizenship to file and pay certain US taxes for ten years even after they are no longer residents or citizens, in addition they are subject to tax on most of their wealth on the day they become unamerican (REF: American Job Creation Act of 2004 and Heroes Earnings assistance and Relief Tax Act of 2008, and section 877 and section 877A of IRS regulations). The trend is clearly for more and more restrictive laws as the tax situation gets more desperate in the US. Indeed, other countries may start to follow the US in making a tax exit more and more difficult.

The wealth tax on expatriation only applies to amounts over $600,000 so does not have an impact on people of modest means. And in practice, things are not all that bad for American expatriates with modest incomes working abroad. They do not have to pay tax on the first $90,000 in employment income they earn. But if income is not earned from employment, this deduction does not apply.  

Changing Social & Economic Views Predicting Political Prospects

This March 30, 2010 analysis suggests that in future the US Democratic party is doomed because people become more Republican as they get older (and Republicans agree with each other more than Democrats). It is fascinating, driven by looking at cross-sectional relationships between age and social and economic views.

But from the perspective of predicting future political patterns, the assumption that social views change with age and not date of birth is key. I think this is a very important factor although social views may change over time too.

Do the social views of 70 year old people have more to do with their being 70 or with their having grown up in the 1940s and 1950s? In 2060, will 70 year old people have social views similar to today’s 20 year old?

The battle to Patent Genes in America

It costs $1000 in Canada for a woman to find out if she has a gene associated with an increased risk for breast cancer. The same test costs $3000 in the United States.

The identity of the genes in question (BRCA1 and BRCA2) was patented in the US and only the lab that holds that patent was allowed to perform this test. They chose to charge $3000 because there was no one else in America could legally perform the test. In Canada, patents are not allowed on genes, and so any lab capable of doing so can perform the test. 

In a recent decision, the US courts have decided that genes can no longer be patented there either. If subsequent challenges to this decision fail, then this completely changes the economics of genetic discovery. This was reported by the New York Times on March 30, 2010 (REF: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/31/nyregion/31about.html).

While it is important to allow a path to make money from medical research if private firms are to be involved, it seems that both the Canadian standard, and the US decision are the right decision. Patents are not allowed on facts and laws of nature, such as prime numbers and elements on the period table. Until that changes, it is clear that the function of a gene is just another fact, and not an invention or process. Only inventions and processes can be patented.

This will change the economic incentive to use bioinformatic methods to do genetic research. But it will not prevent it or even discourage it; it will just shift the methods of monetizing the discovery to other areas such as tools and methods. Besides, the discovery process may soon become trivial and not worthy of assigning immensely valuable patent protection.

See also, The Economist.

Datamining in our Bioinformatic Future

The latest research suggests that we really need to look at an individual person's entire genome and the context of the specific individual to understand if they face a problem due to a new genetic defect. That is partly because just 60 out of 3 billion genes typically mutate from one generation to the next (0.00002%). Also problems can result from complex combinations of factors including heredity, mutations, environment, and nurture. (REF: San Jose Mercury News, March 10, 2010).

About a decade ago, the first human genome was decoded for about $500 million. And that was a brilliant accomplishment. Today, an individual person's genome can be decoded for $25,000. That is just on the edge of being economically useful to treat serious disease in a few people in rich countries. At this rate of development, it seems reasonable that it might soon be economically viable for large numbers of people to have their genomes decoded. The first people for whom this will make sense will be people who are sick. Later it will make sense for preventative purposes; in other words, to understand what risks exist for future disease.  Within a few years, it may cost $5,000 to decode a genome, and hundreds of thousands of wealthy and curious individuals may choose to have this done. By 2020 or 2030, costs may reach $500 to $1000, and it may become routine for individuals to have their full genome decoded. To put this in perspective, today a routine set of blood and urine tests can cost more than $1,000 in the US.

Today's $25,000 genome sequence can be produced by Complete Genomics of Mountain View, California. As reported by the New York Times (March 11, 2010), "Clifford Reid, the chief executive, said that the company was scaling up to sequence 500 genomes a month and that for large projects the price per genome would soon drop below $10,000. “We are on our way to the $5,000 genome,” he said."

The really explosive benefits, may result from combining this vast amount of genetic information into a single common database. If hundreds of thousands of genomes were available in a database, along with health histories and profiles of their associated people, then vast numbers of discoveries could be generated using existing statistical data mining techniques. We would be able to understand rare, but complex multi-gene interactions, and probabilities by looking at the genes of large numbers of cases of healthy and unhealthy individuals. The complex genetic profiles of diseases that affect just one in a thousand people could become clear.  With millions of genomes, even extremely rare diseases might become predictable or well understood. We would essentially discover and be able to predict diseases we did not even know existed.  Those with genomes in the database could even be alerted pro-actively throughout their life as new risks are discovered.  Others could benefit from the process without contributing their genomes to the discovery process.

From a legal and policy perspective, it is very important to enshine protections for individuals so that they can freely contribute their personal information to this discovery process without harming themselves. Otherwise, a great social benefit will be lost. It is important that individuals can remain anonymous. But recognizing that the data could be reverse engineered to identify an individual, it is important that laws prevent people being discriminated against on the basis of their genetic profile. This will be important in a wide range of areas, not just in the more obvious cases of health insurance policies, employment, immigration, and financial contracts.