This March 30, 2010 analysis suggests that in future the US Democratic party is doomed because people become more Republican as they get older (and Republicans agree with each other more than Democrats). It is fascinating, driven by looking at cross-sectional relationships between age and social and economic views.
But from the perspective of predicting future political patterns, the assumption that social views change with age and not date of birth is key. I think this is a very important factor although social views may change over time too.
Do the social views of 70 year old people have more to do with their being 70 or with their having grown up in the 1940s and 1950s? In 2060, will 70 year old people have social views similar to today’s 20 year old?
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